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October 27, 2025
Scenario Analysis for M&A Revenue Projections
Scenario analysis models base, upside, and downside cases to show how customer retention, pricing, and synergy realization could swing post-deal revenue—then applies probability weights to turn those paths into an expected forecast. That clarity helps buyers and sellers price risk (e.g., with earnouts or price adjustments), align on fair value, and plan contingencies for integration or market shocks. It’s especially valuable in Main Street and lower mid-market deals where data is sparse and a few variables drive most of the outcome.
